Latest birth and death statistics for Malaga reveal an ageing population in the province

Births are no longer in free fall in Malaga, but it would seem the rate has stabilised at a very low level. In contrast, deaths in the province are on the rise, with numbers practically 30% higher than those of new babies. This equation has a third variable added to it: an increase in the average age of Malaga province's population that now exceeds 43 years. This is higher than that of other provinces in Andalucía, such as Almeria, Seville and Huelva.

Births in Malaga have seen a slight recovery: between January and June 5,693 babies were born, 1% higher than the figure for the same period in 2024 (5,637) , as revealed by Spain's INE national statistics institute this week. Demographic specialists indicate that this is a positive figure although, rather than growth, they speak of it simply as stabilisation. The number of births may be bottoming out, albeit at very low levels, and this is only being achieved with the support of there being a greater number of women of childbearing age that, in turn, has been boosted by immigration. Note that the fertility rate (the number of children per woman) has yet to recover, as the reproductive behaviour of those who come from other countries or regions tends to emulate that of the host society. Without going any further, in the first half of 2025 the birth rate was 21% lower than for the same period in 2015, when the number of new babies totalled 7,283.

This minimal recovery in the birth rate recorded in Malaga still does not offset the death toll, a statistic that the INE also updated this Wednesday with data up to June. In the first half of this year, 7,351 people died in the province, almost 5% more than in the same period of 2024.

This means that, in the first half of this year, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 1,658. Or, in percentage terms, the number of deaths was 30% higher than the number of births.

The difference between deaths and births is known in specialised jargon as vegetative or natural growth. However, in this case, it is necessary to speak of a decrease, a decline. Without immigration from both other parts of Spain and also other countries around the world, Malaga's population would fall. Instead, the province's population has increased by more than 6,000 residents in the first half of the year , according to the latest quarterly update from Spain's continuous population survey.

The gap between births and deaths in the first half of this year was 1,658, but was 1,365 for the same period in 2024. The gap was wider than last year in 2023 with almost 1,500 more deaths than births and in 2022 the gap was close to 2,000.

Taking the first half of each year over the last decade as a reference, we can see that deaths have been outpacing births since 2018. Since then, the province's natural growth - without immigration - has been negative.

This phenomenon is not unique to Malaga, although it is somewhat more recent than in Spain as a whole. Since 2015, deaths have outnumbered births across Spain. In the first half of 2025, there were 155,635 births nationwide, (which also represents a slight upturn against the same period a year earlier), compared to 228,215 deaths.

This trend in the evolution of births (downward, although it seems to be bottoming out), deaths (upward) and the natural population balance (negative) in the last decade coincides with a steady increase in the average age of the province's population, that is, with demographic ageing. The latest data available from the INE, corresponding to 2024, reports that the average age of the population of Malaga is 43.26 years, whereas in 2015 it was 41 years.

Even so, the average age of Malaga's population is still below the Spanish average (44.37 years). However, while a decade ago the difference with the national average was 1.45 years, according to the most recent figures, residents in the province are now only 1.1 years younger than the national average.

Here's yet another piece of data that reinforces the idea that Malaga is ageing: ten years ago, the province was the ninth youngest in Spain, with the aforementioned average age of 41 years. By 2024, it had dropped one place and was now in tenth place. In Andalucía, there are three provinces younger than Malaga: Almeria, which has the lowest average age in all of Spain (41.16 years), Seville (42.76) and Huelva (43.09). Beyond the Andalusian region, Murcia, the Balearic Islands, Guadalajara, Girona and Madrid also have lower average ages than the Costa del Sol. The oldest provinces are Zamora, Ourense, Lugo and León, where the average population age is over 50 years old.

The statistics published by the INE reveal other data that reflects both the ageing of the population and the increase in life expectancy. The age group with the highest number of deaths is those aged 90 and over, with 1,618 in total during the first half of the year. Next are the 1,264 deaths of those aged 85 to 89 and then 1,126 deaths between the ages of 80 and 84. It may seem natural, but a decade ago this was not the case: the highest number of deaths occurred between the ages of 85 and 89, followed by those aged 80 to 84, and only in third place were those aged 90 and over.