Number of births hits rock bottom in Malaga province

The improvement in Malaga's demographics - or, at least, the fact that the numbers are not getting any worse - seems to be settling down. Between January and May there were 4,759 births in the province, an increase of 1.24% compared to the 4,701 in the same period last year.

This is the second consecutive year in which the birth rate in the Costa del Sol province has risen. In 2024, up to May, its growth rate was 1.16%, a trend that continued until year end. Last year, 11,853 babies were born in Malaga, compared to 11,758 in 2023. So, in round numbers, 150 more children were born in the last 18 months than in the previous 17 months.

Juan José Natera, professor of human geography at the University of Malaga (UMA), stated that, while this is a positive sign, it cannot properly be described as an increase in the birth rate, but simply as a stabilisation, indicating that the number of births may be reaching rock bottom. Moreover, he went on to point out that this bottoming out is happening at very low, very poor levels.

Perhaps this phenomenon is not confined to Malaga alone, maybe it is also happening across Spain. In the country's case too we've had two consecutive years with the number of births slightly on the rise, although more weakly and less steadily at the national level than in Malaga province, which may be showing a bit more consistency. Let's see: between January and May this year 129,808 babies were born in Spain, an increase of 0.43% compared to the same period in 2024. In May 2024, the national birth rate was growing at 0.4% year-on-year. Yet, while Malaga was able to close out all of 2024 with more births than in 2023, Spain's birth rate fell again for the year as a whole, although only by 0.6%.

In both cases the variations are small, equally so in percentage and absolute terms. A complicated situation, therefore, to state anything categorically. This may be a sign of stability, of hitting rock bottom, of reaching a plateau, rather than a change in trend. As an explanation, Juan José Natera pointed to the possibility that the improved economic situation and more employment are contributing factors. Although he states this with little conviction as one of the conditions required for starting a family - accessibility to affordable housing - is far from improving and continues to deteriorate.

Still, Natera insisted that the birth rate in Malaga and across Spain is at very low levels. So say the numbers. If we take the last decade as a reference, the number of new babies has dropped from 420,290 in 2015 to 318,691 in 2024 across Spain. This is a decrease of almost 25%. In Malaga, meanwhile, the drop has been from around 15,300 in 2015 to 11,853 in 2024, a 22.5% decrease.

Rafael Grande, sociology professor at the UMA, provided other clues to explain the slight increase (if viewed optimistically) or the stabilisation (if we opt for caution). On the one hand, he points out that, yes, the birth rate is beginning to rise, or at least it has stopped falling, but this is happening in a context in which fertility has not changed and remains at very low levels, at a rate of 1.1 children per woman.

How is it possible that the birth rate increases without an increase in fertility? Professor Grande explained that there can only be one cause: that there are now more women of childbearing age in Spain. Indeed yes, there are more of them. To begin with, between 2000 and 2008, there were more births than usual in Spain due to the contribution from immigration, so the cohort of women who are starting to have children now is larger. As such, Grande clarified that it's not true that female immigrants or their descendants tend to have more children than Spanish-born women, but rather that their behaviour tends to imitate that of the host society, so they too will have a low fertility rate and they will be bearing children more in their thirties than in their twenties.

Rafael Grande explained that the upturn in the birth rate is occurring across Spain and, within the country, especially in the provinces attracting the most population (not only foreigners, but also people from other regions), as is the case with Malaga.

The sociologist went on to explain that not only are birth rates bottoming out, but also fertility rates (number of children per woman), as well as the average age at which babies are being born.

Most babies are born to mothers aged between 30 and 34, followed by those born to women aged 35-39. This has not changed in the last decade. However, in the last ten years, the births that have fallen the most - only behind those of those aged 15 to 19, which are insignificant - have been those of mothers aged between 25 and 29 (nearly 31.5%, to 888), followed precisely by those of women aged between 30 and 34 (down 28%). So, the only ones that have increased are those of mothers over 40 years of age.